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t can rain tonight = It is theorically possible.
It could rain tonight = It is possible but not particularly likely.
It may rain tonight = There is a chance that this will happen. It is a
factual possibility (compare with the theoretical possibility of 'can')
It might rain tonight = It expresses a weaker probability, there is more
reserve or doubt on the part of the speaker
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It may rain tonight or it might rain tonight are both OK for me.
It can rain tonight might mean "I don't care if it rains or not." Or in
other words, "I will allow it to rain" or "It can rain tonight for all I
care."
It could rain tonight means the same as it might rain tonight.
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I agree with everything you say except that I don't think "It can rain
tonight" is proper English, except in the very unusual context offered by
cclaff.
======================
By the time you get back ...
... that is in the future, not in the past.
By the time you get back I will have finished cleaning the flat.
To use would, I have to place the beginning of the sentence in the past:
I said that by the time you got back I would have finished cleaning the
flat.
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